Every week we save the number the Projections API served before kickoff, then grade it against the box score. No hand-picked players: everyone near the top of his position, and a popular free weekly projection graded on the same players.
Live is the number the API served before each player’s game, saved at the time and never edited. Backtest replays past weeks with only the data available before each one — the same point-in-time history the API serves for past weeks. The two are never mixed.
Each week, anyone our models or the free projection rank among the top 24 QBs, 48 RBs, 60 WRs, 24 TEs, 24 kickers or 32 defenses, whose team plays that week. By default a player counts in the weeks he played; switch to Every player to score a no-show as 0 against the number a lineup sums.
Average miss is the mean of |projected − actual| points. Pairs ranked right takes every two players at the same position in the same week and asks whether the one we projected higher scored more. Start/sit does the same for pairs projected 3+ points apart. Show advanced stats adds the statistics behind each number, Spearman ρ and RMSE among them.
The free projection is captured beside ours before kickoff and graded only on the players both of us project. Differences under about 0.05 points of average miss are within the noise of a season and read as even.
Actual points from openly licensed nflverse data (nflverse.com).
A free weekly projection is one number in one of three scoring formats. The Projections API gives you the work behind it.
Every number scored under your league’s exact rules — 6-point passing touchdowns, tight-end premium, first downs, long-play and yardage bonuses — not just PPR, half and standard.
The projected box score behind every number, so you can rescore it, show it, or check it yourself.
Each number says why: the player’s role on the depth chart, his chance to play this week, and plain-English adjustments for touchdown luck and betting-market team totals.
Ask for any past week and get what the model said before it, using only what was known then. It’s how this page is graded, and you can run the same test yourself.
Each row carries the ids of every major fantasy platform, plus a free crosswalk of the whole player pool. Join once and never match a name again.
Clear terms for showing the numbers in your own app or site, and a commercial redistribution license on the Pro plan.
Weekly and full-season projections under any scoring system, with the stat line behind every number.